Testing the Drug Atezolizumab or Placebo With Usual Therapy in First-Line HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (37 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-04-04, after 2019-04-05 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticcellscardiacsyndromebowel
Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerher2vaccineinfluenzaarthritis -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 137563 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 35145 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1212 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1212 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 175 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 137563 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 35145 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- atezolizumab, docetaxel, paclitaxel, pertuzumab, trastuzumab, trastuzumab dkst, trastuzumab dttb, trastuzumab strf
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab and Gemcitabine in HER2-negative ABC NCT03025880 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Anti-PD-1 Monoclonal Antibody in Advanced, Trastuzumab-resistant, HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT02129556 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Safety Study in Subjects With Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Progressed After Taxanes Treatment. NCT01050322 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of the Combination of Trastuzumab Plus TUCAtinib Plus viNorelbine in Patients With HER2-positive Non-resectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT05583110 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
- A Study With Pembrolizumab in Combination With Dual Anti-HER2 Blockade With Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab in Early Breast Cancer Patients With Molecular HER2-enriched Intrinsic Subtype (Keyriched-1) NCT03988036 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.