A Phase I/II Study of Pexa-Vec Oncolytic Virus in Combination With Immune Checkpoint Inhibition in Refractory Colorectal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (96 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-06-30, after 2017-12-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patients musttransplantcellcancermetastatic
Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferasearthritisrheumatoidupperadministration -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 163 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1134 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 163 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1222 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1064 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 30.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- durvalumab, pexastimogene devacirepvec, tremelimumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Recombinant Vaccinia Virus in Combination With Cemiplimab for Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT03294083 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- A Study of mRNA-5671/V941 as Monotherapy and in Combination With Pembrolizumab (V941-001) NCT03948763 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
- A Personal Cancer Vaccine (NEO-PV-01) w/ Nivolumab for Patients With Melanoma, Lung Cancer or Bladder Cancer NCT02897765 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- A Personal Cancer Vaccine (NEO-PV-01) and APX005M or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT03597282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
- Durvalumab and Tremelimumab in Treating Participants With Recurrent or Refractory Ovarian, Primary Peritoneal, or Fallopian Tube Cancer NCT03026062 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.