Alpelisib and Enzalutamide in Treating Patients With Androgen Receptor and PTEN Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancercoronarypatientcellqt
  Phrases that lowered it: has historyaminotransferasedrugmalesafety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 40285 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6924 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 807 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• BYL719 Plus Letrozole or Exemestane for Patients With Hormone-Receptor Positive Locally-Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01870505 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Galunisertib and Paclitaxel in Treating Patients With Metastatic Androgen Receptor Negative (AR-) Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT02672475 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Open-Label Study Evaluating the Safety and Tolerability of LJM716, BYL719 and Trastuzumab in Patients With Metastatic HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT02167854 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Orteronel as Monotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer (MBC) That Expresses the Androgen Receptor (AR) NCT01990209 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Apalutamide, Abiraterone Acetate, and Prednisone in Treating Participants With Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03360721 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.