Open-label Study to Assess the Effectiveness of Pirfenidone in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF).
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-11-13, after 2017-10-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ulnbiopsyradiationcancerlung
Phrases that lowered it: participantsopen labelclinicaldays beforeday -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 53.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 134 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 982 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 982 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 134 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9139 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3059 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 53.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pirfenidone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of FG-3019 (Pamrevlumab) in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01890265 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK3915393 in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT06317285 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- A 2-Part, Phase 2 Open-label and Crossover Study of Belumosudil for Treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT02688647 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- A Study of Pirfenidone in Patients With Unclassifiable Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Disease NCT03099187 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- A Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of PRM-151 in Subjects With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT02550873 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.