Comparison of SAR341402 to NovoLog/NovoRapid in Adult Patients With Diabetes Mellitus Also Using Insulin Glargine

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: statusmultiplerandomizationcellbaseline
  Phrases that lowered it: insulinvisitkgscreeninglast months
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 65 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 877 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 165213 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparison of SAR341402 to NovoLog in Adult Patients With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Also Using Insulin Glargine NCT03874715 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Comparison of SAR342434 to Humalog as the Rapid Acting Insulin in Adult Patients With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Also Using Insulin Glargine NCT02273180 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Comparison of SAR342434 to Humalog as the Rapid Acting Insulin in Adult Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Also Using Insulin Glargine NCT02294474 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study of Insulin Efsitora Alfa (LY3209590) as a Weekly Basal Insulin Compared to Insulin Glargine in Adult Participants With Type 2 Diabetes on Multiple Daily Injections NCT05462756 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Comparison of the Efficacy and Safety of a New Formulation of Insulin Glargine With Lantus in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Insufficiently Controlled With Non-insulin Antidiabetic Therapy NCT02855684 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.