Selumetinib Sulfate in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Advanced Solid Tumors, Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma, or Histiocytic Disorders With Activating MAPK Pathway Mutations (A Pediatric MATCH Treatment Trial)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mg dlreceivingpatients mustinfusionprior
  Phrases that lowered it: maledayssolidlymphomafemale
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: government (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 21 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pevonedistat, Irinotecan, and Temozolomide in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Refractory Solid Tumors or Lymphoma NCT03323034 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Rb Positive Advanced Solid Tumors, Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma, or Histiocytic Disorders With Activating Alterations in Cell Cycle Genes (A Pediatric MATCH Treatment Trial) NCT03526250 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Samotolisib in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Advanced Solid Tumors, Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma, or Histiocytic Disorders With TSC or PI3K/MTOR Mutations (A Pediatric MATCH Treatment Trial) NCT03213678 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Pepinemab in Treating Younger Patients With Recurrent, Relapsed, or Refractory Solid Tumors NCT03320330 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• MK2206 in Treating Younger Patients With Recurrent or Refractory Solid Tumors or Leukemia NCT01231919 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.