Efficacy and Safety of BIIB033 (Opicinumab) as an Add-on Therapy to Disease-Modifying Therapies (DMTs) in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (MS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsplacebosubject hasmsscreening
  Phrases that lowered it: participantscelltherapyweeksstudy treatment
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Learn About the Safety of BIIB091 and Its Effect on Brain Inflammation When Taken Alone or With Diroximel Fumarate (DRF) in Adults With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT05798520 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Daclizumab in Participants With RRMS Switching From Natalizumab NCT02881567 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Natalizumab (BG00002, Tysabri) Study in Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT01440101 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of BIIB033 in Subjects With Multiple Sclerosis NCT01244139 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study of the Efficacy of Natalizumab on Reducing Disability Progression in Participants With Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01416181 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.