CDK4/6-inhibitor or Chemotherapy, in Combination with ENDOcrine Therapy, for Advanced Breast Cancer / KENDO
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 34% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-07-01, after 2017-08-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2therapymetastaticchemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: participantsmaleparticipantlinetrial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 33.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Neo-Adjuvant Abemaciclib With Fulvestrant in Patients With ER/PR +HER Negative Breast Cancer NCT04305236 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- Phase III Palbociclib With Endocrine Therapy vs. Capecitabine in HR+/HER2- MBC With Resistance to Aromatase Inhibitors NCT02028507 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Neo-Adjuvant Treatment With Palbociclib: Effect on Ki67 and Apoptosis Before, During and After Treatment NCT02530424 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Study to Compare the Combination of Ribociclib Plus Goserelin Acetate With Hormonal Therapy Versus Combination Chemotherapy in Premenopausal or Perimenopausal Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03839823 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Fulvestrant Versus Fulvestrant Plus Palbociclib in Operable Breast Cancer Responding to Fulvestrant NCT03447132 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.