First Line mFOLFOXIRI + PANITUMUMAB vs mFOLFOX + PANITUMUMAB IN RAS AND BRAF WT METASTATIC COLORECTAL CANCER PATIENTS

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpotentialbrainwomenchildbearing
  Phrases that lowered it: drugsphase iiiaccordingmaleaged
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 107994 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15637 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of mFOLFOX6 + Panitumumab Combination Therapy and 5-FU/LV + Panitumumab Combination Therapy in Participants With Chemotherapy-naïve Unresectable Advanced Recurrent Colorectal Carcinoma NCT02337946 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of mFOLFOX-6 Plus Cetuximab for 8 Cycles Followed by mFOLFOX-6 Plus Cetuximab or Single Agent Cetuximab as Maintenance Therapy in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer and WT KRAS Tumours NCT01161316 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• FOLFIRI + Panitumumab First-line Treatment in Elderly Patients With Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer, RAS/BRAF Wild-type and Good Performance Status NCT03142516 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Intermittent or Continuous Panitumumab Plus FOLFIRI for RAS/B-RAF Wild-type Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04425239 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• PAnitumumab REchallenge Followed by REgorafenib Versus the Reverse Sequence NCT04787341 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.