A Strategy to Improve Success of Treatment Discontinuation in Buprenorphine Responders
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-06-30, after 2017-08-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsdsmpatientminihypertension
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanttrialmedical historyclinical -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 33.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 214 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 214 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 29 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 44341 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4649 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 33.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- buprenorphine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Buprenorphine/Naloxone Stabilization and Induction Onto Injection Naltrexone NCT02294253 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Nalrexone Facilitated Discontinuation of Buprenorphine NCT01895036 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Lorcaserin in Combination With XR-Naltrexone for Relapse Prevention in Opioid Use Disorder NCT03169816 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study to Test Whether BI 1356225 Improves Impulsive Behavior in People With Opioid Use Disorder Who Are Taking Buprenorphine NCT06628622 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
- Improved Strategies for Outpatient Opioid Detoxification NCT01377610 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.