Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of Dapivirine Gel (0.05%) Administered Rectally to HIV-1 Seronegative Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 4% of the time (217 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-09-20, after 2017-10-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priorto screeningparticipationdiagnosispregnancy
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsvaccinesbleedinghiv -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1144 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1144 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 108 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, immunology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pharmacokinetic Study of Dapivirine Gel Administered Rectally to HIV-1 Seronegative Adults NCT03393468 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of Tenofovir Alafenamide (TAF)/Elvitegravir (EVG) Administered Rectally NCT04047420 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of Oral Maraviroc and Maraviroc 1% Gel in HIV-1 Seronegative Adults NCT02346084 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Pharmacokinetics of Two Intravaginal Rings (IVRs) Containing Different Dose Strengths of Vicriviroc (MK-4176) and MK-2048 NCT02419456 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Tenofovir Levels Following Local Application of Tenofovir Reduced-Glycerin 1% Gel NCT01768962 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.