A Trial to Assess Brexpiprazole Versus Placebo for the Treatment of Acute Manic Episodes, Associated With Bipolar I Disorder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: disorderdiagnosisbipolarepisodeacute
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanteffect ofthe trialsafety of
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 17.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 157 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Assess Brexpiprazole Versus Placebo for the Treatment of Acute Manic Episodes Associated With Bipolar I Disorder NCT03259555 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of an Intramuscular Formulation of Aripiprazole (OPC-14597) as Maintenance Treatment in Bipolar I Patients NCT01567527 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Parallel Group-comparison Trial of Aripiprazole in the Treatment of Patients With Bipolar Disorder Experiencing a Manic or Mixed Episode NCT00606281 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety & Tolerability of Brexpiprazole in the Maintenance Treatment of Adults With Major Depressive Disorder NCT03538691 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter Investigative Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Long-term Administration of Aripiprazole in Combination With Mood Stabilizer for the Treatment of Patients With Bipolar Disorder Experiencing a Manic or Mixed Episode NCT00606229 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.