A Multiple-dose Study of ASP8374, an Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor, as a Single Agent and in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Subjects With Advanced Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasthe subjectcancerbiopsyprior
  Phrases that lowered it: singlemaleto evaluateevaluate theparticipants
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 17 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ASP1948, Targeting an Immune Modulatory Receptor as a Single Agent and in Combination With a PD-l Inhibitor (Nivolumab or Pembrolizumab) in Subjects With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03565445 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Study of ASP1951 in Subjects With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03799003 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• Study of ASP8374, an Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor, in Japanese Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03945253 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Study of ASP1948, Targeting an Immune Modulatory Receptor, in Japanese Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT04094506 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Study of ASP0739 Alone and With Pembrolizumab in Advanced Solid Tumors With NY-ESO-1 Expression Participants NCT04939701 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.