Research Study Comparing a New Medicine Fast-acting Insulin Aspart to Another Already Available Medicine NovoRapid/NovoLog in People With Type 2 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartcoronarymyocardialbasalinfarction
  Phrases that lowered it: insulinaspartparticipantsdegludecscreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 78 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 616 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 232856 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Research Study to Compare a New Medicine Fast-acting Insulin Aspart to Another Medicine Insulin Aspart in Chinese People With Diabetes NCT04588259 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Trial Comparing Efficacy and Safety of Insulin Degludec and Insulin Glargine in Insulin naïve Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01849289 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Research Study to See How Switching From a Daily Basal Insulin to a New Weekly Insulin, Insulin Icodec, Helps in Reducing the Blood Sugar Compared to Daily Insulin Glargine in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes NCT06340854 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Research Study to Compare Two Types of Insulin, a New Insulin, Insulin Icodec and an Available Insulin, Insulin Degludec, in People With Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Not Used Insulin Before (ONWARDS 3) NCT04795531 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Research Study to Compare Two Types of Insulin, a New Weekly Insulin, Insulin Icodec and an Available Daily Insulin, Insulin Degludec, in People With Type 2 Diabetes Who Use Daily Insulin NCT04770532 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.