Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity Study of GSK Biologicals' Candidate Malaria Vaccine (SB257049) Evaluating Schedules With or Without Fractional Doses, Early Dose 4 and Yearly Doses, in Children 5-17 Months of Age

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dlmajortime ofmonths ofdocumented
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationperiodhealthythe effect
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2431 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 230 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 0.42 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Immunogenicity and Safety Study of GSK Biologicals' Candidate Malaria Vaccine Given at 6, 7.5 and 9 Months of Age in Co-administration With Measles, Rubella and Yellow Fever (YF) Vaccines Followed by a Booster of the Malaria Vaccine. NCT02699099 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity of GSK Biologicals' Malaria Vaccine 257049 When Administered on 7 Schedules to African Infants NCT01231503 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Immunogenicity and Safety Study of GSK Biologicals' Candidate Malaria Vaccine Evaluating Different Dose Schedules in a Sporozoite Challenge Model in Healthy Malaria-naïve Adults NCT03162614 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity Study of GlaxoSmithKline(GSK) Biologicals' Candidate Malaria Vaccine 257049 in the Sporozoite Challenge Model in Healthy Malaria-naïve Adults NCT01857869 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of GSK Biologicals' Candidate Malaria Vaccine 257049 Against Malaria Disease in Infants and Children in Africa NCT00866619 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.