A Study to Investigate Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacodynamics and Pharmacokinetics of ASP6294 in the Treatment of Female Subjects With Bladder Pain Syndrome/Interstitial Cystitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectcellpainstagecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: visitosteoarthritispharmacokineticsthe screeningparticipants
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ASP8302 in Participants With Underactive Bladder NCT03702777 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Study Comparing Placebo and ASP3652 in the Treatment of Women With Bladder Pain Syndrome / Interstitial Cystitis (BPS/IC) NCT01613586 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Intravesical LP08 in Patients With Interstitial Cystitis/Painful Bladder Syndrome NCT01393223 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of TAR-302-5018 in Subjects With Idiopathic Overactive Bladder NCT03109379 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Mirabegron and Solifenacin Succinate Alone and in Combination for the Treatment of Overactive Bladder NCT01340027 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.