Pharmacologic Strategies for the Etonogestrel Implant in HIV-Infected Women
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-10-25, after 2019-02-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapyentryserumpriortumor
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanthiv infectedbleedingantiretroviral -
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 31.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 40 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 48424 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6565 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 31.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, immunology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- etonogestrel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pharmacologic Strategies to Use the Levonorgestrel Implant in HIV-infected Women NCT02722421 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- A Pharmacokinetic Evaluation of Levonorgestrel Implant and Antiretroviral Therapy NCT01789879 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- SSAT063- Pharmacokinetics of Efavirenz 400 mg Once Daily During Pregnancy in HIV-1 Infected Women NCT02499874 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of E/C/F/TDF Versus RTV-Boosted ATV Plus FTC/TDF in HIV-1 Infected, Antiretroviral Treatment-Naive Women NCT01705574 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of E/C/F/TAF (Genvoya®) Versus E/C/F/TDF (Stribild®) in HIV-1 Positive, Antiretroviral Treatment-Naive Adults NCT01780506 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.