A Study of the Effect of IW-1701 (Olinciguat), a Stimulator of Soluble Guanylate Cyclase (sGC), on Patients With Sickle Cell Disease (SCD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-07-22, after 2017-12-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationplacebopatientof studystudy drug
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatethe effectvisitmale -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 16 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of IMR-687 in Subjects With Sickle Cell Disease NCT04474314 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
- Dose Escalation Study of PF-07209326 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Sickle Cell Disease NCT04255875 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Oral GSK4172239D Compared With Placebo in Sickle Cell Disease Participants Aged 18 to 50 Years NCT05660265 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- Safety of Single Doses of CSL889 in Adult Patients With Sickle Cell Disease NCT04285827 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Different Dose Regimens of Aes-103 Given for 28 Days to Subjects With Stable Sickle Cell Disease NCT01987908 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.