To Study Clinical Effectiveness and Safety of Olaparib Monotherapy in Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-10-08, after 2018-01-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticuncontrolledcarcinomaevidencepatient
Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerher2maleaminotransferaseperiod -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 114 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1481 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 130 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1481 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 114 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1761 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 738 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- olaparib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Two-stage Simon Design Phase II Study for Non-BRCA MBC Patients With HRD Treated With Olaparib Single Agent NCT03367689 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
- Olaparib+Trastuzumab in HER2[+],Breast Cancer Susceptibility Gene (BRCA) Mutated Advanced Breast Cancer NCT03931551 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
- Olaparib Tablets Maintenance Monotherapy Ovarian Cancer Patients After Complete or Partial Response to Platinum Chemotherapy NCT03534453 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- UTOLA: UTerin OLAparib NCT03745950 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Analysis of Olaparib Response in Patients With BRCA1 and/or 2 Promoter Methylation Diagnosed of Advanced Breast Cancer NCT03205761 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.