Open-label Study of Tofacitinib for Moderate to Severe Skin Involvement in Young Adults With Lupus
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (37 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-12-01, after 2017-08-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: virusor equalsleequal tonegative
Phrases that lowered it: the trialscreening109weeks beforethe investigator -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 41.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 152 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13530 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 152 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 52 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 27990 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13530 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 41.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tofacitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of NKTR-358 (LY3471851) in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT03556007 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Phase IIa Study for IPG11406 in Patients With Lupus Nephritis NCT06717815 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- A Study of DS-7011a in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05638802 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- SG301-SC Injection Safety Study in Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT06144710 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- An Adaptive Phase II Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Pharmacodynamics, Safety and Tolerability of GSK2586184 NCT01777256 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.