BLASST-1 (Bladder Cancer Signal Seeking Trial): Nivolumab, Gemcitabine, and Cisplatin in Treatment of Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC) Undergoing Cystectomy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiapsoriasiscancerheartcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: arthritisrheumatoidmyelomalymphomalaboratory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 51.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17469 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 77355 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant Atezolizumab in Localized Bladder Cancer NCT02451423 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Feasibility Study of Durvalumab +/- Oleclumab as Neoadjuvant Therapy for Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer (BLASST-2) NCT03773666 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• An Umbrella Study to Determine the Safety and Efficacy of Various Monotherapy or Combination Therapies in Neoadjuvant Urothelial Carcinoma NCT04586244 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Gemcitabine, Cisplatin, Plus Nivolumab in Patients With Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer With Selective Bladder Sparing NCT03558087 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab and Combination Chemotherapy Before Surgery for the Treatment of Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT04383743 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.