SPY-X: A Study to Assess the Feasibility of Using SPY Alone for Sentinel Node Localization for Melanoma or Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-11-02, after 2017-10-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerbreastmelanomabiopsyneck
Phrases that lowered it: study tothe uppertrunklocated onthe objective -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 129 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 129 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 33 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nuclear and Near-Infrared (NIR) Imaging in Melanoma NCT01295931 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- NIR-Guided Sentinel Lymph Node Mapping in Melanoma NCT01121718 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- A Study Comparing Green Fluorescent Dye and Radioactive Dye for Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy in Pediatric Cancers NCT02910726 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Fluorescent Dyes for Lymph Node Mapping NCT01095913 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Pilot Indocyanine Green Imaging for Mapping of Arm Draining Lymphatics & Nodes in Breast Cancer NCT01771666 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.