Study of NGM313 in Obese Participants
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-07-17, after 2017-09-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitythe safetytolerability pharmacokineticsfailureheart
Phrases that lowered it: mass indexbody masskg m2bmiinsulin -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 35087 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1996 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pioglitazone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of NGM395 in Adult Participants NCT04187339 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Phase 1 Study of NGM313 in Healthy Adult Participants NCT02708576 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- ORION: Effects of Cenicriviroc on Insulin Sensitivity in Subjects With Prediabetes or Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) and Suspected NAFLD NCT02330549 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Food Effect of NO-13065 in Healthy and Obese Adult Subjects NCT04838639 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Trial Investigating Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD for Multiple Doses of NNC9204-0530 in Male and Female Subjects Being Overweight or With Obesity NCT02835235 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.