Head-to-Head Study of Etelcalcetide and Cinacalcet in Asian Hemodialysis Patients With Secondary Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (181 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasrandomizationcoronarydoublesubject must
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsreceivedand safetysafety ofdrug
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 48.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 502 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Etelcalcetide (AMG 416) in the Treatment of Secondary Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease on Hemodialysis NCT01785849 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Etelcalcetide (AMG 416) in the Treatment of Secondary Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) on Hemodialysis NCT01788046 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Safety, Efficacy, PK and PD of CTAP101 (Calcifediol) ER Capsules for SHPT in HD Patients VDI NCT03602261 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• The Effect of Etelcalcetide on CKD-MBD NCT03960437 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Impact on Calcium Levels When Hemodialysis Patients With Secondary Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) Switch From Cinacalcet to Etelcalcetide NCT01932970 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.