Study to Determine the Safety and the Efficacy of Fasinumab Compared to Placebo and Nonsteroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) for Treatment of Adults With Pain From Osteoarthritis of the Knee or Hip

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painplaceboneuropathymultiplediabetic
  Phrases that lowered it: kneejointevaluate theto evaluateosteoarthritis
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 127224 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 94 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16096 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Determine the Safety and the Efficacy of Fasinumab Compared to Placebo and Naproxen for Treatment of Adults With Pain From Osteoarthritis of the Knee or Hip NCT03161093 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effects of Fasinumab on Peripheral Nerve Function in Patients With Pain Due to Osteoarthritis of the Hip or Knee NCT03691974 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Long-Term Safety and Efficacy Study of Fasinumab in Patients With Pain Due to Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee or Hip NCT02683239 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Fasinumab in Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Chronic Low Back Pain and Osteoarthritis of the Hip or Knee NCT03285646 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• To Assess the Patients' Ability to Self-Administer Fasinumab NCT03491904 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.