A Study of LY3154207 in Participants With Dementia Due to Lewy Body Dementia (LBD) Associated With Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease (PD) or Dementia With Lewy Bodies (DLB)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equaldementiachronicmonthsdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanteffect ofevaluate theto evaluate
• Sponsor's past trials: 1116 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 143 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of E2027 in Participants With Dementia With Lewy Bodies (DLB) or Parkinson's Disease Dementia (PDD) With or Without Amyloid Copathology NCT04764669 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• K0706 for Patients Diagnosed With Dementia With Lewy Bodies NCT03996460 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• ANAVEX2-73 Study in Parkinson's Disease Dementia NCT03774459 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• RewinD-LB - Clinical Study of Neflamapimod in Patients With Dementia With Lewy Bodies NCT05869669 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Flexible-Dose, Adjunctive Therapy Trial in Adults With Parkinson's Disease With Motor Fluctuations (TEMPO-3) NCT04542499 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.