A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Belimumab Administered in Combination With Rituximab to Adult Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) - BLISS-BELIEVE

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsscreeningplacebogreater thanevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationulntherapyplusmg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2474 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 206 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 64883 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Belimumab Phase I Study in Chinese Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02880852 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Subcutaneous Belimumab and Intravenous Rituximab Co-administration in Subjects With Primary Sjogren's Syndrome NCT02631538 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Study of BOS161721 in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) Patients on a Background of Limited Standard of Care NCT03371251 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and PK Profile of Single and Multiple Doses TJ202 in Patient With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05140824 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• Clarification of Abatacept Effects in SLE With Integrated Biologic and Clinical Approaches NCT02270957 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.