The Effects of Patiromer on Serum Potassium Level and Gut Microbiome of ESRD Patients With Hyperkalemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectschronictransplantcrossoverweeks of
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsserumstagereceivedweeks
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 36.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Open-Label, Multiple Dose Study to Evaluate the Pharmacology, Safety, and Tolerability of Patiromer in Participants on Hemodialysis NCT02033317 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• A Two-Part, Single-Blind, Phase 3 Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Patiromer for the Treatment of Hyperkalemia (OPAL) NCT01810939 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Pharmacodynamic & Safety of Patiromer in Children & Adolescents (2-<18 Yrs) With Chronic Kidney Disease and Hyperkalemia NCT03087058 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• An 8-Week Study to Evaluate Tenapanor in the Treatment of Hyperphosphatemia in End-Stage Renal Disease Patients on Hemodialysis (ESRD-HD) NCT02675998 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Patiromer Titration in Heart Failure Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT01130597 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.