A Phase 3 Study With P2B001 in Subjects With Early Parkinson's

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasparkinsondiseasesafety andsubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: effectvisitparticipantsdrugsexposure
• Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Two Doses of Once Daily P2B001 in Subjects With Early Parkinson's Disease NCT01968460 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn About the Safety of BIIB122 Tablets and Whether They Can Slow the Worsening of Early-Stage Parkinson's Disease in Adults Between the Ages of 30 and 80 NCT05348785 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Clinical Evaluation of Ropinirole Prolonged Release/Extended Release (PR/XR) Tablet for Adjunctive Therapy to L-dopa in Subjects With Advanced Parkinson's Disease NCT00823836 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Dose Finding Study of Preladenant (SCH 420814) for the Treatment of Parkinson's Disease (PD) in Japanese Patients (P06402) NCT01294800 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Safety and Tolerability of Oral AZD3241 in Patients With Parkinson's Disease NCT01603069 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.