Bilateral Orthotopic Lung Transplant - Bone Marrow Transplant
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (243 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-03-01, after 2017-12-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantcellstagelungmarrow
Phrases that lowered it: participant40multiplefev1as determined -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 10 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1151 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 103 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- RIC alloBMT With Post-transplant Cyclophosphamide for Refractory Systemic Sclerosis NCT05298358 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
- Transplanting Hepatitis C Lungs Into Negative Lung Recipients NCT03724149 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- CD34 Selected Allogeneic HCT w/ Myeloablative Conditioning Plus CD8+ Memory TCell Infusion in MDS, AL and CML NCT04151706 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Steroids, Azithromycin, Montelukast, and Symbicort (SAMS) for Viral Respiratory Tract Infection Post Allotransplant NCT01432080 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
- HLA-Mismatched Unrelated Donor Bone Marrow Transplantation With Post-Transplantation Cyclophosphamide NCT02793544 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.