Evaluation of Stem Cell Therapy Effects on the Immune Response in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (36 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-09-15, after 2016-06-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsbonemarrowcellrefractory
Phrases that lowered it: raarthritisrheumatoidparticipantsingle dose -
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 35 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 47 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 21.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03186417 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- The Effects of Mesenchymal Stem Cell Secretome in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients NCT05925647 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- A Multi-center Study a Single IV Infusion of Allogeneic MPCs in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis and Incomplete Response to at Least One TNFα Inhibitor NCT01851070 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Transplantation of Bone Marrow Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Affected Knee Osteoarthritis by Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01873625 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Articular Cartilage Resurfacing With Mesenchymal Stem Cells In Osteoarthritis Of Knee Joint NCT01207661 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.