A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-08-16, after 2017-11-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationheartintravenousischemicstroke
Phrases that lowered it: topicaldermatitisatopicmoderateparticipants -
Sponsor's past trials: 1125 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 149 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 8 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1125 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 149 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- baricitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03334422 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03435081 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Combination With Topical Corticosteroids in Adults With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03733301 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- A Long-term Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) With Topical Corticosteroids in Adults With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis That Are Not Controlled With Cyclosporine or for Those Who Cannot Take Oral Cyclosporine Because it is Not Medically Advisable NCT03428100 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Children and Adolescents With Atopic Dermatitis NCT03952559 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.