An Exploratory Study to Evaluate the Prophylactic Efficacy of a Single Immunization of Ad26.RSV.preF Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in a Virus Challenge Model in Healthy 18 to 50 Year-old Adults

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellpriortoxicitypurposegrade
  Phrases that lowered it: participanthealthyparticipantsrespiratoryblood pressure
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Immunogenicity of an Investigational RSV Vaccine Candidate (Ad26.RSV.preF) in Adults 18 to 50 Years of Age, and RSV-seropositive Toddlers 12 to 24 Months of Age NCT03303625 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity for Regimen Selection of Ad26.RSV.preF and/or RSV preF Protein Combinations Followed by Expanded Safety Evaluation in Adults Aged 60 Years and Older NCT03502707 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study of an Ad26.RSV.preF-based Regimen in the Prevention of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR)-Confirmed Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)-Mediated Lower Respiratory Tract Disease in Adults Aged 65 Years and Older NCT03982199 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
• A Study of an Ad26.RSV. preF-based Vaccine in Adults Aged 18 to 59 Years, Including Adults at High Risk for Severe RSV Infection NCT05070546 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Describe the Safety and Immunogenicity of a RSV Vaccine in Healthy Adults NCT03529773 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.