Immunotherapy With BCMA CAR-T Cells in Treating Patients With BCMA Positive Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-03-22, after 2017-11-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hearttransplantsubjects withdonorcardiac
Phrases that lowered it: plasma20patientsinvestigatorjudged -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 190 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 239784 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 35291 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 190 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 33 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 239784 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 35291 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cyclophosphamide, fludarabine, oxide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- BCMA-Specific CAR T-Cells Combined With a Gamma Secretase Inhibitor (JSMD194) to Treat Relapsed or Persistent Multiple Myeloma NCT03502577 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
- T Cells Expressing a Novel Fully-Human Anti-BCMA CAR for Treating Multiple Myeloma NCT03602612 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Study of T Cells Targeting B-Cell Maturation Antigen for Previously Treated Multiple Myeloma NCT02215967 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- T-cells Expressing an Anti-SLAMF7 CAR for Treating Multiple Myeloma NCT03958656 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- CART-BCMA Cells for Multiple Myeloma NCT02546167 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.