Intrathecal Administration of Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cell-derived Neural Progenitors (MSC-NP) in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-04-17, after 2018-09-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsmarrowbonecellcells
Phrases that lowered it: screeninghistorymultipledrugthe study -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Intrathecal Administration of Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cell-derived Neural Progenitors (MSC-NP) in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis NCT01933802 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Stem Cells in Rapidly Evolving Active Multiple Sclerosis NCT01606215 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cell (MSC) Transplantation in MS NCT00813969 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Repeated Administration of NurOwn (MSC-NTF Cells) in Participants With Progressive MS NCT03799718 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Autologus Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Multiple Sclerosis NCT01895439 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.