Exercise Dose and Metformin for Vascular Health in Metabolic Syndrome
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (48 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-05-23, after 2017-08-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectheartmetforminsyndromedisease
Phrases that lowered it: mgindividualsevaluatehealthsmoking -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 33135 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 194228 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 194228 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 33135 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 62.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- metformin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Combination of Metformin/Inulin vs Inulin on Adiponectin in Metabolic Syndrome NCT02773927 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Combination of Metformine/Inulin Versus Metformin on Prostate Benign Hyperplasia in Metabolic Syndrome NCT02778776 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Nutraceuticals in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus Type II and Dyslipidemia. NCT03676309 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- REducing With MetfOrmin Vascular Adverse Lesions in Type 1 Diabetes (REMOVAL) NCT01483560 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Metformin in the Diastolic Dysfunction of Metabolic Syndrome NCT02017561 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.