A Randomised, Double-blind, Phase I/II Study to Evaluate the PK, PD, Safety, and Efficacy Between HLX01 and Rituximab in Patients With Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis and Inadequate Response to Treatment With DMARDs

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (41 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustcancerleast weekspriortherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsarthritisdayjointabuse
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Safety and Efficacy of HLX01+MTX in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03522415 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics, and Safety of BI 695500 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01682512 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Trial of VDJ001 in Patients With Moderate-to-severe Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT05957107 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Study of LW402 Tablets in Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT06800157 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Effectiveness and Safety of Two Dosing Regimens of Olokizumab (OKZ), Compared to Placebo, in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Are Taking Methotrexate But Have Active Disease NCT02760368 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.