Treatment of Alopecia Areata (AA) With Dupilumab in Patients With and Without Atopic Dermatitis (AD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hassubject istherapypriorconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmascreeningvisitmalelaboratory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 18.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 55 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 172 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Open-Label Single-Arm Clinical Trial to Evaluate The Efficacy of Abatacept in Moderate to Severe Patch Type Alopecia Areata NCT02018042 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• ATI-501 Oral Suspension Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Alopecia Areata, Alopecia Universalis or Alopecia Totalis NCT03594227 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study of DAXDILIMAB for the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Alopecia Areata NCT05368103 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• A Long-term Study to Determine Safety and Efficacy of Dutasteride in Male Subjects With Androgenetic Alopecia NCT01831791 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Dual JAK1/TYK2 Inhibitor for Cicatricial Alopecia NCT05076006 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.