Oral Tranexamic Acid vs. Oral Aminocaproic Acid to Reduce Blood Loss and Transfusion After Total Knee Replacement.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-07-01, after 2017-10-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chronic kidneykidney diseasepatientspriormyocardial
Phrases that lowered it: kneeoralacidclinicalhistory -
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 13 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3159 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 589 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aminocaproic acid, tranexamic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Oral Tranexamic Acid vs. Oral Aminocaproic Acid to Reduce Blood Loss After Total Hip Replacement NCT04187014 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Intra-articular Tranexamic Acid in the Reduction of Blood Transfusions in Primary Total Hip and Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT02393963 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Topical Versus Intravenous Tranexamic Acid in Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT02323373 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Comparison of Topical Versus Intravenous Tranexamic Acid in TKA NCT02393300 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Topical Application of Tranexamic Acid for Saving Blood Losses in Patients Subjected to Prosthetic Knee Surgery NCT03386656 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.