A Phase 2 Trial of the Safety and Efficacy of Bardoxolone Methyl in Patients With Rare Chronic Kidney Diseases - PHOENIX
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-01-29, after 2017-12-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsuncontrolledtransplantulnadequate
Phrases that lowered it: visittype diabetessafetyefficacyscreening -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 239 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 239 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 44 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bardoxolone methyl
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Trial of Bardoxolone Methyl in Patients With CKD at Risk of Rapid Progression (MERLIN) NCT04702997 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- A Trial of Bardoxolone Methyl in Patients With ADPKD - FALCON NCT03918447 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
- A Pharmacodynamic Study of Measured Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes NCT01500798 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Bardoxolone Methyl Evaluation in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes NCT01351675 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- An Extended Access Program for Bardoxolone Methyl in Patients With CKD (EAGLE) NCT03749447 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.