A Study of LY3002813 in Participants With Early Symptomatic Alzheimer's Disease (TRAILBLAZER-ALZ)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-09-21, after 2017-12-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: alzheimertolerabilityand efficacyrandomizationscan
Phrases that lowered it: 20months beforeefficacyreceived28 -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1131 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 60 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 142 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 60 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1131 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 142 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- donanemab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3372689 to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05063539 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3202626 on Disease Progression in Participants With Mild Alzheimer's Disease Dementia NCT02791191 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
- A Study of LY3303560 in Participants With Early Symptomatic Alzheimer's Disease NCT03518073 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3303560 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT02754830 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3002813 in Participants With Memory Damage Due to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) or AD NCT02624778 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.