AZD8601 Study in CABG Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularhepatitisplacebomonthsatrial
  Phrases that lowered it: surgerypatientsundergoingasthmaelective
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1483 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 115 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Reduction of Ischemia-Reperfusion Mediated Cardiac Injury in Subjects Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery NCT00858936 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• AZD5718 Phase IIa Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Oral AZD5718 in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease (CAD). NCT03317002 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of RBD4059 in Participants With Stable Coronary Artery Disease NCT06717074 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• VISTA-16 Trial: Evaluation of Safety and Efficacy of Short-term A-002 Treatment in Subjects With Acute Coronary Syndrome NCT01130246 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Dose Titration Study to Assess the Effects of SAR407899 in Patients With MVA and/or Persistent Stable Angina Despite Angiographically Successful PCI NCT03236311 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.