Study of ISIS 703802 in Participants With Hypertriglyceridemia, Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 18 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: type diabetestransplantcarcinomadiabetes mellitusmri
  Phrases that lowered it: participantshepaticevaluate theto evaluatehistory
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Placebo-controlled, Proof-of-concept Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Lanifibranor Alone and in Combination With SGLT2 Inhibitor EmpaGliflozin in patiEnts With NASH and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT05232071 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Lanifibranor in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes & Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease NCT03459079 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3885125 in Participants With Dyslipidemia or Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) NCT06007651 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Olezarsen (Formerly Known as AKCEA-APOCIII-LRx) in Adults With Hypertriglyceridemia and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (Established or at Increased Risk for), and/or With Severe Hypertriglyceridemia NCT05355402 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of IONIS ANGPTL3-LRx in Healthy Volunteers With Elevated Triglycerides and Participants With Familial Hypercholesterolemia NCT02709850 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.