Imaging Tau in Alzheimer's Disease and Normal Aging

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerbrainadmriimaging
  Phrases that lowered it: participantclinicalscreeningvisitsingle
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Imaging Tau in Alzheimer's Disease and Normal Aging NCT02884492 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• A Longitudinal Evaluation of a Radiotracer for Use in Tau Tracking NCT03919669 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Evaluation Comparing Tau PET Radiotracers, [18F]GTP1 and [18F]PI-2620 or [18F]MK-6240 in Subjects With Normal Cognition or Prodromal to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT04566003 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• A Phase I [18F]THK-5351 Positron Emission Tomography Study in Healthy Subjects and Alzheimer's Disease NCT03112096 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of [18F]MNI-777 PET as a Marker of Tau Pathology in Subjects With Tauopathies Compared to Healthy Subjects NCT02103894 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.