A Phase III Study to Evaluate Efficacy of Botulinum Toxin for Treating Epicondylitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-08-19, after 2019-04-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 723 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: greaterrecurrenthistory ofeventrandomized
Phrases that lowered it: patientthe studyinjectionbotulinumphysical -
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 723 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 181 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Injection in the Treatment of Lateral Epicondylitis. Randomized Controlled Trial NCT04875338 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single Dose TenoMiR as a Treatment for Tennis Elbow NCT04670289 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Effectiveness of Steroid Injection in Treating Patients With Lateral Epicondylitis NCT01986465 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of TenoMiR in Lateral Epicondylitis NCT06192927 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- An Investigation of Tendoncel, a Novel Topical Platelet Lysate Gel, in the Treatment of Lateral Epicondylitis NCT03811145 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.