An Extension of the TG1101-RMS201 Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectslong termcompletedthe long48
  Phrases that lowered it: trialdayvisitopen labelpatients with
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 7 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Ublituximab in Participants With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis (RMS) NCT03277248 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Ublituximab in Participants With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis (RMS) ( ULTIMATE 1 ) NCT03277261 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Phase IIa Study of Ublituximab in Participants With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis NCT02738775 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Extension Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Natalizumab in Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01416155 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• An Extension Protocol for Multiple Sclerosis Patients Who Participated in Genzyme-Sponsored Studies of Alemtuzumab NCT00930553 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.