Study on Androgen Receptor and Triple Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerchemotherapycellsmetastaticwomen
  Phrases that lowered it: blood pressuremm hgsystolicdiastolicsevere
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 83.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8248 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 43646 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Enzalutamide in Patients With Androgen Receptor Positive (AR+) Ovarian, Primary Peritoneal or Fallopian Tube Cancer and One, Two or Three Prior Therapies NCT01974765 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Abiraterone Acetate in Treating Postmenopausal Women With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00755885 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Orteronel as Monotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer (MBC) That Expresses the Androgen Receptor (AR) NCT01990209 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Targeting the PAM50 Her2-Enriched Phenotype With Enzalutamide in Hormone Receptor-Positive/Her2-Negative Metastatic BC NCT04142060 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• HR+/HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer and Endocrine Resistance NCT03322215 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.