Survival Prolongation by Rationale Innovative Genomics

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientcelltransplantationcancersquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsaccordingaminotransferaseknown orinjection
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 52.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9151 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• VX15/2503 in Combination With Avelumab in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03268057 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Afuresertib +Sintilimab+Chemotherapy in Patients With Selected Solid Tumors That Resistance to Prior Anti-PD-1/PD-L1 NCT05383482 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Abexinostat in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumor Malignancies NCT03590054 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Avelumab in Metastatic or Locally Advanced Solid Tumors (JAVELIN Solid Tumor) NCT01772004 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Cabozantinib in Combination With Avelumab in Patients Refractory to Standard Chemotherapy With Advanced Neuroendocrine Neoplasias G3 (NEN G3) NCT05289856 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.