Phase II Study of Avelumab in Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Prior Sorafenib Treatment
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-01-31, after 2017-12-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomatransplantationcancerheartprostate
Phrases that lowered it: articularinjectionmalehypersensitivitymm -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 194 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 422 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 422 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 194 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 236 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 206 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- avelumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Bavituximab, Axitinib, and Avelumab in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT05249569 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- A Phase II Study of Nivolumab + Ipilimumab in Advanced HCC Patients Who Have Progressed on First Line Atezolizumab + Bevacizumab NCT05199285 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- A Study Evaluating Safety and Therapeutic Activity of ANV419 in Patients with Advanced Cancer. NCT04855929 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Immunotherapy With Nivolumab in Combination With Lenvatinib for Advanced Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT03841201 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- VX15/2503 in Combination With Avelumab in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03268057 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.