A Study to Evaluate the Abuse Potential of Oxymorphone Compared to Other Mu Opioid Agonists.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-06-28, after 2018-03-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: the subjectmslongdisorderplacebo
Phrases that lowered it: healthyscreeningdrugparticipantsmoderate -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 180612 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 223 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 39 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 180612 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 41203 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- hydromorphone, oxycodone, oxymorphone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Reversal of Opioid-induced Respiratory Depression With Opioid Antagonists NCT05338632 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials terminated
- Drug Interaction and Subjective Effects of Compounds for Opioid Use Disorder NCT03143855 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Dexmedetomidine in the Treatment of Symptoms Of Acute Opioid Withdrawal NCT04470050 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Doxazosin to Alter the Abuse of Oxycodone NCT03415581 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy, Safety and Dose-Response Study Followed by Open-Label Study of Lofexidine Treatment of Opioid Withdrawal NCT01863186 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.